Poker Lesson 6: Pot Odds and Implied Odds

Now that we know how to calculate our chance of winning the pot with different types of draws, it is time to learn about pot odds and implied odds. Pot odds and implied odds are used in connection with outs to decide if we have a positive long-term profitability in certain situations. Let us start with simple pot odds.

Pot odds are easily explained with the ratio of the bet size compared to the pot. For the sake of simplicity we assume that we hold a flush draw with one card to come. Our opponent bets 10 dollars into a pot of 40 dollars. We think that we must make the flush to win the hand. Our pot odds are 1-to-5 (10 to win 50), or 16.67%. The chance of us making the flush on the next card is roughly 18%, making a call in this situation is profitable in the long term. Given these pot odds, we need to improve our hand more often than 16.67% in order for a call to be profitable.

This leads us on to implied odds. In calculating implied odds, we take into account not only the current pot odds, but also future bets that we expect to win should we make our hand. Let us assume that the pot on the turn is 25 and our opponent bets 10 and we yet again hold a flush draw. Our direct pot odds are 1-to-3,5, or roughly 22%. We will make our hand only 18% of the time, making a call not profitable if looking just at pot odds.

However, we think that if we make the flush, we will win another 20 dollars on the river. This puts our implied pot odds at 1-to-5,5 instead, or roughly 15%. Since we will make our hand 18% of the time, our call is profitable if we can get another 20 dollars of our opponent when we make our flush.

In short, if our expectation of making our draw is bigger than the pot odds or implied odds, the call is profitable long-term.

At the table we have a limited time to make our decision. Therefore, most of our calculations will be approximations. If someone bets 9 dollars into a pot of 15, we are best off to just do a quick approximation. It will cost us 9 to win 24, but instead of dwelling into details, we might as well assume it will cost us 9 to win 27 for the sake of simplicity (1-to-3 pot odds or 25%).

Now that we have gone over the mathematics behind the game it is time to take a look at how to play draws on the flop, which is what the next article is about!